I'm not going to go math nerd with this stuff. It's almost the end of season, and this is still a mystery online, so I'm just going to vibe-math it.
Now, first of all, I think the sprite variant drop rates online on fortnite.gg and various articles and threads and posts are inflated for whatever reason. Watching people hunting these things down and actually farming for them in chests feels very different than what the supposed drop rates are. The base sprite drop rates seem plausible.
How to find rare sprites:
